The Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November shows support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition surging in November, up 5.5% points in a month to 50%, and now well ahead of the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 37.5% (down 7% points).

Support for the minor parties increased by 1.5% points to 12.5%.

If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 49 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party.

In November support for National rebounded strongly, up 7% points to 39% – back to where support for the party was in June 2022. Support for potential coalition partners Act NZ was down slightly by 1.5% points to 11%.

The news was not good for the current governing coalition with support for Labour dropping 3.5% points to 25.5%. This is the lowest level of support for Labour for over five years since June 2017 – before Jacinda Ardern became the Labour Party leader a month later. Support for the Greens also fell in November, down 3.5% points to 12%.

Support for the Maori Party increased 1% points to 4% although if the above result were repeated at next year’s election the party would have little influence over who would form government.

In addition, 8.5% of electors (up 0.5% points) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 3.5%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5% in November.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 926 electors during November. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, down 2% points, did not name a party.

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