That Judith Collins became Leader of the National Party was one of the most remarkable political comebacks we have seen in recent years.
Her announcement yesterday of her retirement to head the Law Commission marks the end of a 23-year career as an MP and one of the National Party’s most controversial politicians.
She had been in Parliament 12 years by 2014 and had become the subject of allegations by Nicky Hagar in his book “Dirty Politics” that she was a source for the right-wing blogger Cameron “Whaleoil” Slater.
Slater claimed that she had been attempting to undermine the CEO of the Serious Fraud Office, Adam Feeley, while she was Minister in Charge of the Office.
As a consequence, she resigned her portfolios and appeared to have been consigned to the political wilderness with Key making it clear he would be in no hurry to reappoint her to Cabinet.
She was eventually cleared by an inquiry, and then, in the aftermath of the 2015 election, she began to hint that she might leave National to take over the leadership of ACT.
That made sense because she has always been regarded as being on the right of the National Party.
But in December, the day after she was a keynote speaker at an ACT meeting, she was returned to the Cabinet by Key.
Journalists pressed Key on what the reaction from his senior Ministers was to her return.
“I have a group of senior Ministers with whom I have a high trust relationship,” he said.
“I have discussions with them, and I let them know what I think, and I won’t detail all the discussions I have with them because it wouldn’t be appropriate to do that.”
But what the journalists and every National MP knew was that Collins was a polarising figure within the Caucus.
It was a reputation she was unable to shake off until she took over the leadership in 2020.
When Bill English resigned as leader after the 2017 failure to form a government, she stood for the leadership along with Amy Adams and Simon Bridges.
Bridges won, but Collins was never a big admirer.
She stood for the leadership again when Bridges decided to resign in early 2020 after a persistent campaign to undermine him had been alive within the Caucus.
By then, it was clear her support came from some of the most marginal members of the Caucus, like West Coast MP, Maureen Pugh and the former Whanganui MP, Harete Hipango.
But she didn’t have the numbers to challenge for the leadership in 20 when Todd Muller took over, but instead alerted Simon Bridges to Muller having enough support to swing enough votes to get a vote of no confidence in him.
There was speculation she was trying to do a deal with her votes, believed to be between eight and twelve.
Whatever she was trying to do, Bridges obviously did not do a deal with her.
Instead, her chance came when Muller’s leadership collapsed after he developed mental health problems.
It was a hospital pass.
No National leader could overcome the wave of Jacinda-mania that was sweeping the country, but Collins mounted a plucky campaign seemingly un-nerved by Jacinda Ardern.
But Collins has always been a popular figure within the party. Her brand of robust social conservatism, accompanied by a generosity of spirit and a sparkling sense of humour, endeared her to many National members, particularly women.
Her efforts during the 2020 campaign, when she put the party ahead of her own ambitions, will be what she will be remembered for most within the National.
She must have known she was on borrowed time. The Caucus still bore the scars of the 2020 leadership battles, and throughout 2021, it was clear that Sir John Key was backing Christopher Luxon to take over the leadership.
At the same time the former leader Bridges was getting increasing support from MPs to return to the leadership.
Her reaction bordered on the bizarre with a claim in a late night press statement that Bridges, had intimidated a former MP, Jacqui Dean in 2017 and that therefore she was demoting him.
It didn’t take long for that to lead to a caucus vote of no confidence in her leadership and for Luxon to become theeader.(originally this story incorrectly reported Luxon had defeated Bridges in a ballot, there was no ballot.)
But the National caucus was a divided, demoralised mess.
Luxon healed most of those divisions but not before Bridges had resigned.
The big question was what would happen to Collins if National won the 2023 election.
Many National MPs and many were surprised she emerged as a senior Cabinet Minister appointed by Luxon to one of the longest lists of Cabinet portfolios of anyone, including Attorney-General, Minister of Defence, Minister for Digitising Government, Minister Responsible for the GCSB, Minister Responsible for the NZSIS, Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology, Minister for Space and Lead Coordination Minister for the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission’s Report into the Terrorist Attack on the Christchurch Mosques.
Cynics within the Caucus claimed this was to make her so busy she couldn’t cause any more trouble.
But it was a remarkable comeback for the second time.
Nevertheless she still managed to be controversial in that role; only last October, declaring a friendship with the US Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, the woman behind the current immigration crackdown in Minneapolis.
She didn’t, and she threw herself into her portfolios, winning applause for her work, particularly in Defence, science, and space.
With so many portfolios to find replacements for, her departure, expected in the mid-year, leaves Luxon with a challenge in terms of restructuring her Cabinet.
The most difficult will be Attorney General which is traditionally held by a lawyer.
The National Party lawyers in the current Cabinet (apart from Collins) are Chris Bishop, Tama Potaka and Scott Simpson.
Ministers outside Cabinet who are also lawyers are Chris Penk and James Meager.
Penk must surely be in line for promotion into Cabinet, and as an ex-serviceman (New Zealand and Australian navies), he would be a suitable candidate to take over Defence.
There are still question marks over the future of Matt Doocey staying in Cabinet, and Shane Reti’s continuance as an MP is also a question.
But Collins’s retirement is the first brick out of the wall; Luxon needs more if he is to present a truly refreshed Cabinet and avoid a log jam of no promotion prospects within the Caucus.
Yesterday’s news would seem to mark almost the end of an era; only Gerry Brownlee now survives as a veteran of the party before John Key became leader.
