The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) last night came out with what amounts to an embarrassing backdown over its estimates of how many days we have fuel for.
The new figures follow websites like NZOilWatch and, perhaps more awkwardly for the Government, a new site from the Taxpayers’ Union, all suggesting there was less fuel in the pipeline than it was claiming.
The MBIE revisions come on the eve of an announcement expected today to clarify how the Government will implement the National Fuel Plan, which allows it to implement fuel rationing.
MBIE’s statement last night said: “MBIE has updated the fuel stock and shipment information on its website to make it easier for New Zealanders to understand the full fuel supply picture.
“The update adds clearer information about where fuel ships are at a given point in time.
“This includes ships that have left overseas ports but are more than two weeks from New Zealand, as well as ships unloading fuel or moving between New Zealand ports.”
Even so, MBIE offers figures no more recent than 11.59 pm last Sunday.
It says fuel companies confirmed that ships carrying:
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- 19.8 days of petrol
- 11.6 days of diesel
- 11.7 days of jet fuel
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were either unloading fuel or travelling between New Zealand ports.
“In addition to the six ships unloading fuel or travelling between New Zealand ports, there are also seven ships still at sea carrying around 42.6 days’ worth of fuel, expected to arrive in New Zealand over the next two to three weeks,” it said.
“Overall, New Zealand has about 49 days of fuel available. This includes around 21 days stored on land and a further 28 days on ships that are either unloading or expected to arrive within the next three weeks.”
And then a sort of admission that the previous figures were wrong.
“The update does not mean there has been a sudden increase in fuel.
“Instead, it presents the information more clearly so people can better understand how much fuel New Zealand has on hand and on the way.”
NZOilWatch was unable to confirm MIBIE’s claim that seven ships were en route to New Zealand.
Its website confirmed only four.
Northport, which includes the Channel Infrastructure oil storage facility at Marsden Point, is currently showing only one oil tanker, the Front Pollux, due in port over the next three weeks.
The Taxpayers’ Union shows all seven ships that MBIE has reported, but notes that three are unconfirmed and two of those have yet to leave their ports in Singapore and Busan in South Korea.
The focus has been on diesel.
MBIE says that New Zealand has enough diesel either in New Zealand or on the way to cover 46.4 days of use.
NZOilWatch says that because MBIE’s figures are four days old, the total should be 43 days, but that 21.1 days of that are not confirmed.
The Taxpayers’ Union has posted similar figures.
Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen, who spotted the apparent diesel shortage, said it was “encouraging” that the data was clarified.
“There’s now an extra nearly 16 days’ worth [of diesel] that is either currently being discharged or coming in before the 29th of March – that is a pretty significant difference,” he said.
“We’re not nearly as worried as we were this time yesterday about the potential crunch, particularly on diesel,” Olsen said.
Speaking in Parliament, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said Olsen had not included ships that were on the way and the amount of diesel that was in them.
“Critically, what New Zealanders need to understand is that we agreed that keeping a focus on diesel is very important, because obviously that is the fuel that so much of our industry and productive economy leans on and requires,” she said.
She said that every company importing fuel into New Zealand was legally required to have a minimum stockholding obligation (MSO) of at least 21 days’ worth of diesel.
“What that means is that they face fines of millions of dollars if they breach that requirement,” she said.
“That is intended to provide safety and a buffer, and we would expect to be notified if there was any risk of those MSOs being breached, and we have not had any such notification.”
The uncertainty in MBIE’s figures raises questions about the relevance of the Government’s responses under the National Fuel Plan.
However, Willis said responses today would not be changing the fuel response phase overnight, “although it is the case that within a response phase, we will continue to take additional actions, some of which we will detail (today).”
“We will also provide more information about the criteria we will use to assess when a change in the response phase is required.”
Willis said the Government’s goal was to be doing enough to source the supply of fuel internationally so that it did not become necessary, and, by taking sufficient actions in response phases one and two, we wouldn’t reach phase three or four.
So for the meantime, mandatory conservation measures and rationing are off the menu.
That is as long as MBIE has got its numbers right.
