National candidate Candace Kinser would be likely to defeat Green co-leader Chloe Swarbrick in the Auckland Central electorate, according to a Curia Taxpayers’ Union poll which POLITIK has obtained.
The poll showed Kinser on 22 per cent; Labour candidate Swarbrick on 19 per cent and Labour candidate Naisi Chen on 18 per cent.
But it is not all good news for National.
Polling for the party votes shows National down ten percent from the 33 per cent it got at the 2023 election to 23 per cent, while Labour is static on 23 per cent. The Greens are down four per cent to 20 per cent; ACT is also down four per cent to five per cent, but New Zealand First is up four per cent to eight per cent, and TOP is down two per cent to two per cent.
Kinser is the candidate who was more or less forced on the National Party by the local electorate organisation who did not want a candidate they were being pressured to approve by the party’s leadership.
The thinking behind that was that the party does not want to win additional electorate seats when it is polling poorly because that will mean fewer list seats and that could affect some of their top MPs like Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop.
Without taking the 15 per cent who are undecided into account, the poll shows National down 10 per cent on their 2023 election result, with the Greens and ACT down by four, while the Opportunity Party is surprisingly down by two per cent.
Labour hasn’t moved, but New Zealand First is up four per cent.
But the big news is that Swarbrick is in trouble in an electorate she comfortably won with a majority of 3896 last election.
There is a caveat; the undecideds are still very high at 22 per cent.
But of those who have made up their mind, 22 per cent would vote for National’s Kinser; 19 per cent for the Greens’ Swarbrick and 18 per cent for Labour’s Naisi Chen.
Historically, Auckland Central was a solid Labour seat, but in 2005, as gentrification in Ponsonby and Parnell intensified, National MP Nicky Kaye won and remained as MP until she retired in 2020.
That’s when Chloe Swarbrick won the seat for the Greens. But things are changing again.
Curia’s polls show that at present, 6% of 2023 National voters would now vote Labour and 8% NZ First.
4% of 2023 Labour voters would now vote National and 8% Greens.
11% of 2023 Greens voters would now vote Labour and 6% NZ First.
A narrow margin of Auckland Central voters think the country is now going in the right direction, and the top three issues named were homelessness, safety- law and order and then business and jobs outlook.
Then came transport, city centre decline, education – schools, Hauraki Gulf – environment and then planning issues and intensification.
Candace Kisner, the National candidate, brings more than 20 years’ experience in executive leadership and governance.
Born in Austin, Texas, she graduated from the University of Hawaii in anthropology and politics in 1996 and got a Master’s in business from Massey University in 2014.
In a profile, she described herself as an “experienced horse rider and competitive polo player.”
She is a former CEO of NZTech and helped launch Techweek, New Zealand’s largest national festival of technology and innovation.
She currently sits on a number of boards across the science sector and is a member of the Auckland University Council of Governors as well as being the Auckland-Northland President of the Cancer Society.
Kisner may be set to win the seat, but what will worry National is that in a seat last election where it was ten per cent ahead of Labour in the party vote, they are now even (not allowing for undecided votes).
Speaking at National’s conference last month, she was confident she could win the seat.
“I’d say my chances are quite good, to be honest,” she told POLITIK.
“I think that Auckland Central has been underserved for a while in terms of a proactive MP that can link the conversation between City Council and Wellington, especially, as well as relating to the different communities, businesses and people within the electorate.”
The Greens, on the other hand, can afford to lose Auckland Central because it looks as though they are well established above the five per cent threshold.
The Opportunity Party will be disappointed. Auckland Central should be a good electorate for them with its high proportion of younger professionals.
However, it is just under 100 days to the election; plenty of time for all the parties to get their acts together.
