Prime Minister Christopher Luxon defied the sceptics and managed to end his two-and-half days in China, with the relationship between our two countries almost back on track.
There was no drama.
That doesn’t mean to say there were no tensions, but the planning had been meticulous, and by the eve of the formal talks on Friday at the Great Hall of the People, officials from both sides were confident that each knew where the other stood.
There would be no surprises.
Or at least that was the plan until the Prime Minister held an end-of-trip press conference and broke with the Western consensus on China’s role in Ukraine.
His assertion that it was “wrong” to say China was assisting Russia and Iran will raise eyebrows when he meets his old Unilever mate, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in Brussels this week.
What Luxon’s visit showed was that China clearly values the relationship with New Zealand and is keen for it to survive even though it has experienced what China President Xi Jinping called “many ups and downs.”
“But we have always respected each other and worked together,” he said.
Bilateral relations have remained for a long time at the forefront of China’s relationship with Western developed countries and delivered tangible benefits to our two peoples.”
Xi’s description of the relationship being at the “forefront” of China’s relations with Western countries doesn’t quite match his telling Labour Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in 2019 that it was one of the closest between China and Western countries.
Nevertheless, the message was clear: New Zealand is different to its Five Eyes friends, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and Australia.
Xi was effusive in his opening remarks to Luxon; he said he was “very impressed” with him during his meeting at APEC in Peru last year and that he appreciated his positive attitude.
The Chinese President was just about to start talking about the meeting in Peru when the media were ushered out of the talks.
Luxon refuses to say what went on in the talks, but from the tone of some of the Chinese coverage, it may not have been quite as effusive as the opening remarks.
However, the Chinese Communist Party newspaper, the “Global Times”, carried extensive coverage of the Xi-Luxon talks and appeared to have obtained some of Xi’s speaking notes.
“There are no historical grievances or fundamental conflicts of interests between China and New Zealand,” the Global Times reported Xi saying.
“Both countries should respect each other, seek common ground while reserving differences, and appropriately view and address differences and disagreements.”
And there are disagreements.
New Zealand has objected to China firing a test missile into the Pacific off Tahiti; it continues to call for China to uphold the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ruling on the South China Sea and is particularly angry about the signing of four economic agreements between China and the Cook Islands.
Luxon maintains this is an issue between New Zealand and the Cook Islands and, in public, refuses to apportion any blame to China.
“Our issue is really with the Cook Islands,” he told journalists in Shanghai on the eve of his meeting with Xi.
“It’s between the Cook Islands and New Zealand, about them not being transparent about their national agreements.
“Foreign Minister Peter’s raised it with his bilateral with the foreign minister in China, and I don’t talk about what I’m going to discuss in advance.”
However, China made its position clear at the regular Foreign Ministry press briefing on Thursday.
“China and the Cook Islands are comprehensive strategic partners of mutual respect and common development,” the spokesperson Giao Jiakun said.
He said that both New Zealand and the Cook Islands were China’s important cooperation partners.
“China’s cooperation with the Cook Islands does not target any third party and should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party.”
New Zealand’s argument is that it is not a third party, that Cook Islands citizens are New Zealand citizens, and that the Cooks are required to consult with New Zealand on any international agreements they propose to enter into.
It seems that Luxon did not raise the matter with Xi but rather in his meeting with Premier Li Qiang.
Luxon revealed that in his formal press release to mark the end of his visit.
“I raised with Premier Li a number of issues that are important to New Zealand; in particular, the need for engagement in the Pacific to take place in a manner which advances Pacific priorities,” he said.
While Li was just as effusive in his opening remarks to Luxon, he also added in some more direct observations on the relationship.
“China stands ready to work with New Zealand to carry forward our traditional friendship, cement political mutual trust, expand practical cooperation so that we can better promote our common development and bring more well-being to the two peoples of our two countries,” he said.
“I wish to exchange views with you on issues of our shared interest and have a candid and in-depth exchange of views.”
Where there was a clear difference was over China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership.
The force behind China’s application, Commerce Minister Weng Wentao, was in the talks with Li and Luxon.
The communique simply said New Zealand had “noted” the application, diplomatic jargon that might as well have said New Zealand did not support the application.
Luxon waffled to the media about the need for consensus among the CPTPP members before there could be agreement for China to join, but given that the CPTPP includes China hawks like Canada, Japan and Australia and is about to acquire the United Kingdom, the chances of that consensus happening would seem remote.
However, when the leader of any country goes to Beijing, it is with the intention that they engage on global issues with one of the two or three major powers capable of influencing them.
Luxon pointed to this in his opening remarks with Xi.
“We are meeting at a time of increasing global uncertainty and strain, and the world looks to China as a major global power to play a constructive role in addressing many of the big challenges that are facing us all,” he said.
“And in this context, New Zealand’s dialogue with China is more important than ever before, and we value it very highly.
“Stability in our region and our deep and abiding support for the rules-based system are fundamental to New Zealand’s interest.”
Though Luxon will not say what the two leaders talked about, in the context of his opening comments, they must have discussed Ukraine and Iran.
There are continuing suspicions in the West that China, through its “no limits” relationship with Russia, is at least enabling its war in Ukraine and further suspicions about China’s partnership with Iran, which sends around 90 per cent of its oil exports to China.
At the same time, there are ongoing concerns in the West about China’s relationship with nuclear-armed North Korea.
Luxon, however, was not so concerned.
“We haven’t seen evidence of those four powers (China, Russia, North Korea, Iran)coordinating in a way actively against the west,” he said.
“We’ve seen bilateral associations, say, between Russia and North Korea with respect to war in Ukraine.
“We’ve seen bilateral arrangements between, say, Iran and Russia as well.
“But we haven’t seen any evidence of a wholesale force for those four countries coming together against the West in that way.
“So that might be a difference of opinion, but that’s very much how we look at it.”
But that might not be how his Foreign Affairs and Defence ministers look at it.
It was a surprising move by Luxon, who has tended in public to defer to Peters on foreign policy and has thus found himself having to sit by as Peters has dog-whistled against China and in favour of an Australian–United States view of China as a global threat to peace.
The Chinese are well aware of the differences within the New Zealand coalition, and it is probable they were looking to this visit from Luxon to provide a definitive view of where New Zealand stands on its relationship with China.
Luxon might not have disappointed them.
“You reflect back on 53 years of this relationship and how it kicked off in 1972, and you think of all the developments that have happened along the way, then it’s like any normal personal relationship you have,” he said.
” You’ve actually got to focus on the arc of where this thing’s going and that it continues to grow.
“You’re often in different times of world affairs, and that’s why I say I think they feel, and I certainly feel, that we’ve got a very constructive relationship, and that’s very important for New Zealand.”
And for possibly the first time from Luxon, we heard an endorsement of the independent foreign policy.
“I think as a small country, you have to know that we’re not a medium power, we’re not a large power, so I have to find ways to influence what I believe in and what we believe in New Zealand, which is a set of values, and actually put voice to those values and articulate those values as well,” he said.
So maybe it has been a trip which has smoothed out the ups and downs.
That may mean there will be less of the euphoria about the relationship with China that we saw in the first two decades of this century, but it may also mean that the danger of it going off track is substantially reduced.
Luxon seemed to acknowledge this.
“We have huge areas of collaboration, and we’re energized about that,” he said.
“You would expect us in a mature relationship to raise issues where there are differences of views.
“We did that very openly, very candidly.
“I’ve said right from day one of being Prime Minister, we do that with all our partners.
“We do that publicly, privately, predictably, consistently.
“But we’re at a very constructive set of events where all issues are discussed.”
A senior New Zealand official put the whole relationship with China a little more bluntly.
“We need each other,” he told POLITIK.
