Christopher Luxon yesterday did what many of his supporters in the National caucus had been hoping for months that he might do.
He went on the offensive.
It started with his friend and defender, Newstalk ZB host Mike Hosking, naming five “malcontented” MPs who were supposedly behind the leaks, suggesting his leadership was in peril.
Then, in an extraordinarily lengthy caucus meeting (two hours), he moved a motion of confidence in himself.
He won that.
Then he read a brief statement to the Press Gallery, in part blaming the media, for his plight.
He had a point.
It is hard to think of any Prime Minister who has had to face the constant drip-drip-drip of attacks on his leadership, particularly from people who might ordinarily be thought of as friends.
The problem facing the National Party, though, is that its problems might be much deeper than simply the Prime Minister’s likability.
However, yesterday, that was what the Caucus was about, and it met against the background of an onslaught from commentators calling for him to stand down.
Leading up to the Caucus vote, Newstalk ZB host Heather duPlessis-Allan contributed another of her comment pieces last Friday, calling on National MPs to demand Luxon stand down.
In the NZ Herald, former ACT leader Richard Prebble made a similar call in a column yesterday morning.
And lurking in the background in the Herald all year have been regular columns from Matthew Hooton calling for the departure of Luxon.
Then last Friday, Herald Political Editor Thomas Coughlin assured readers that a push on Luxon’s leadership would take place within the Caucus within the next fortnight.
The TV networks, Three Plus and One News, kept up the speculation and the pressure.
Luxon, who makes no secret of his distaste for the New Zealand media, was quick to finger them yesterday.
“If the media want to keep focusing on speculation and rumour, I am not going to engage,” he said.
“Kiwis expect the media to ask us the tough questions about our policies, to hold us to account for our pledges to New Zealanders, and to interrogate us about the things that matter to them.
“They are not interested in this media soap opera.
“Everyday Kiwis will not be losing sleep over political slideshows here in Wellington.”
All this, however, does not mean that the lead-up to yesterday was fake news.
Hosking (or Luxon) has a point about the five malcontents.
But as far as POILITIK understands, there may be at least another three or four.
Interestingly, some of the group, and Chief Whip Stuart Smith, whose role in the whole affair is ambiguous, were supporters of Judith Collins.
Her core supporters were regarded back in 2020 as the malcontent faction within the Bridges Caucus.
And Luxon’s decision yesterday to call for the vote of confidence was a tacit acknowledgement that he had a case to answer.
The last time a leader did something like this was in May 1996, when Helen Clark was in opposition and stared down a deputation of five of her front bench colleagues calling on her to resign and, as Michael Cullen later revealed, proposed handing the leadership back to Mike Moore.
She went to her Caucus and secured a vote of confidence. The attempted coup was over, and Mike Moore resigned at the next election.
But there was a big difference between what Clark faced in 1996 and what Luxon faced yesterday.
Clark faced an organised coup attempt with five senior MPs ready to put their names to it.
Goff and Cullen appeared on TV, confirming their call for Clark to resign.
The plotters also had a candidate, Mike Moore.
Luxon faced nothing like that; just rumour and speculation.
Even the size of his victory is the subject of speculation.
National’s caucus votes are secret. Only the scrutineers, Junior Whip Suze Redmayne and the Third Whip, Dana Kirkpatrick, will know the numbers.
Luxon himself wasn’t all that helpful, but it was not clear from what he said (or didn’t say) whether his support was unanimous.
“That motion was passed confirming what I have been saying, I have the support of my caucus as their leader,” he said during his brief media stop after the meeting.
“Caucus has answered clearly and decisively, it has backed my leadership, and that matter is now closed, and I won’t be commenting further on it.”
Except that he did just over an hour later during Question Time. This time, he was more definite.
Chris Hipkins: “Does the Prime Minister continue to enjoy the unanimous support of National Party members of Parliament?”
Luxon: “Absolutely.”
NZ First Leader Winston Peters’ claim that he knows the numbers however seems highly improbable.
Regardless, Luxon has put the “malcontents” in their place.
What is clear from yesterday’s result is that the centre of the Caucus is solidly behind him, and it can be inferred from what some of them have said beforehand that they will have spoken at the meeting calling for the plotting and leaking to stop.
Such was the anger among some that it would not be surprising if they called on the plotters and leakers to resign at the election.
“I think that if people can’t support the team, the honourable thing to do is not be part of the team,” said National deputy leader, Nicola Willis, after the caucus meeting.
“They can pick a different team.”
Some Ministers like Simeon Brown and Simon Watts showed their hand beforehand with calls for unity behind Luxon.
Meanwhile, Peters has been at his mischief-making best with his claim that yesterday’s meeting was only the beginning.
“This is a very bad move,” he said.
“There are going to be consequences for that.”
What Peters is clearly trying to do is to portray NZ First (which has had the same leader for 33 years) as the stable component of the coalition.
But Luxon’s real enemy is the polls.
His party’s own pollster, David Farrar, published on Sunday an average of public polls weighted in favour of the most recent.
This showed an 8.5 per cent swing has now emerged against National in a two-party Labour-National contest.
POLITIKToday this morning, published a list which showed that ten backbenchers would lose their seats if the swing was nine per cent. Only one, Chris Bishop, could realistically expect to come back on the list.
National probably needs to improve its ratings to somewhere between 30 and 35 per cent to reduce those losses.
The omens are not good.
Across the 2014, 2017,2020 and 2023 elections, National’s vote share as measured by what is now the One News Verian poll fell on average from May to election day by 3.4 per cent each election.
In short, it only got worse as the year rolled on.
And this year is looking very problematic for National.
Over the past 12 months, the One News Verian poll has seen a doubling to 52 per cent of those who think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months.
This would seem to indicate that National’s problems are much deeper than the likability of the Prime Minister.
New Zealand First, with a much bigger Government spending approach to the economy and a tough campaign against monopolies, seems to be taking votes off National.
Ironically, that could be Luxon’s lifeline; that the coalition handily gets the most votes, but that the votes National loses go to NZ First.
So Luxon has survived and would seem likely to survive through the election.
The big challenge now will be to ensure National survives as the largest party in the coalition and that the coalition holds Government.
