The changes to the electorate boundaries announced yesterday could dramatically impact National’s front bench.
The big change is that the Wellington suburban seat of Ohariu held by Labour MP and Deputy Speaker Greg O’Connor has been abolished.
This was the seat Nicola Willis tried to win at the last election but she lost out relatively narrowly to O’Connor by 1260 votes.
There is no other avenue left open to her in Wellington to win an electorate seat.
Her front bench colleague, Chris Bishop’s highly marginal Hutt South seat also appears to have got even more marginal with the changes.
The need to safeguard these two leadership team members at the next election almost certainly spells the end of the Speaker, Gerry Brownlee and former Minister Melissa Lee maintaining high places on the National list.
The problem is partly compounded because National’s representative on the Boundaries Commission, Roger Sowry, looks like he has done his job too well.
National could easily win so many electorate seats that only one or two of its list candidates make it into Parliament.
Yesterday, National’s pollster, David Farrar, seemed to confirm this when he estimated that the changes would “help National in a number of seats and only help Labour in a small number.”
The changes are still provisional and subject to objections (and counter-objections).
But National has scored some big wins.
The boundaries are set to a formula which require between 74,000 and 76,000 voters in each general electorate.
That number is determined by dividing the population of the South Island by the 16 seats it is mandated to have under the Electoral Act.
Because the South Island has set that quota, Statistics NZ says the number of general electorates across New Zealand will decrease from 65 to 64 at the next general election. There is no change to the number of Māori electorates, which remains at seven.
The number of electorates in the North Island will decrease by one from 49 to 48.
That has been achieved by abolishing Ohariu
The consequence of all this is that each electorate will now have nearly 50 per cent more voters in it than it did when MMP was introduced in 1996.
There are also big changes to the two traditionally “woke” inner city Wellington seats, Wellington Central and Rongotai, both currently held by Green MPs, Tabitha Paul and Julie-Anne Genter.
These changes are designed to absorb Ohariu and mean that while Wellington Central has lost Labour voters to Rongotai from Brooklyn and Mt Cook it has also picked up Labour voters from Ngaio and Wadestown.
The net result, according to a National Party source, who spoke to POLITIK, is likely to be that Wellington Central will remain a tossup between the Greens and Labour while the Greens could lose Rongotai back to Labour.
Perhaps anticipating this there are thought to be two high profile potential Labour candidates in the wings for the seat: Labour health spokesperson, Ayesha Verrall and CTU economist, Craig Rennie.
Although Auckland does not lose a seat like Wellington, some big changes are proposed, which could see Labour lose its long-held stranglehold on the West Auckland seats.
There was a widespread expectation among MPs from National and Labour that the seat to go in the North Island would be Epsom.
That hasn’t happened so David Seymour (and ACT) are safe.
“The Commission considered options for reducing the number of general electorates in the Auckland region, but this did not present a solution that met the statutory criteria as effectively as a lower North Island option,” the Commission said in its report.
Instead, it has opted in Auckland for a deal of shuffling around which, according to Farrar, will make National’s two marginal North Shore seats, Northcote and Upper Harbour, safer.
But in West Auckland there are big changes.
National MP Paolo Garcia who holds the current New Lynn by only 1013 votes will now have to contend with that seat spreading up into the Waitakeres and, according to Farrar, becoming a very marginal seat.
“Ranui (a new seat) is around two thirds Te Atatu, one third Upper Harbour, and a bit from Kelston and Kaipara,” said Farrar.
“Overall these changes bring in quite a bit of blue territory and probably tip the seat on paper to National from Phil Twyford.”
Now that Jacinda Ardern has gone, Grey Lynn, is returning to Auckland Central from her old seat, Mt Albert.
Thus (according to Farrar) Auckland Central gets 15,300 luvvies from Mt Albert who will all love Chloe (Swarbrick) and vote for her.”
One consequence of the quota for each North Island electorate being higher is that there are now a number which are effectively rural electorates: Northland, Coromandel, Taranaki King Country, Waikato, East Coast, Napier, Tukituki, Wairarapa, Whanganui, Rangitikei, Rotorua and Taupo.
Palmerston North has had to be topped up with 10,600 predominantly farmer votes coming into the city from Rangitikei.
Last night, National Party sources suggested that it was now a marginal seat which will not please its Labour MP, Tangi Utikere, who has been rising rapidly through the caucus ranks.
In the South Island the story is simple.
The population explosion around Christchurch means that Selwyn has to be reduced and that has been achieved by moving some 11,300 voters into Jim Anderton’s old electorate, Wigram, now held by Megan Woods.
At the same time Wigram is losing the left leaning suburbs of Addington and Spreydon.
Woods has a majority of only 1179 and the migrants from Selwyn could be enough to topple her.
There is speculation that she may retire. These boundary changes may be a factor when she considers her future.
In a way it is all good news for National, it would be better news if National was polling higher and thus able to get more list seats.
This will be particularly important as it attempts to court the Asian vote.
Its two Asian MPs who hold electorates, Dr Carlos Cheung (Mt Roskill) and Paolo Garcia (New Lynn) hold their seats with very narrow majorities and neither has gained out of the boundary redistribution.
The party will be under pressure from the Indian community to find room for an Indian MP and there remains the party’s lack of Maori and Pasifika MPs.
Ordinarily the list would be used to solve these problems.
But if a low polling National Party fills its seat quota with electorate MPs the list option shrinks.
One National source, familiar with the whole boundary process, told POLITIK last night the solution was simple.
The party needed to get its party vote up so it could get more list MPs.
No pressure Mr Luxon!
.
