Labour’s fight to reclaim the Māori seats is not about the seats themselves but about keeping Te Pāti Māori out of contention for any future coalition.
Labour knows the possibility of Te Pāti Māori being in Government is a toxic stick National can use to beat it.
It will be a fight which will get personal, cousin versus cousin, with unpredictable outcomes.
There is also a subtext.
Labour are betting that Māori are much more concerned about bread-and-butter issues- jobs, health, and housing than the constitutional issues like the Treaty that Te Pāti Māori emphasise.
In effect, they are making the fight a de facto referendum on what really matters to Māori.
But like everything in Māori politics, personalities ultimately lie at the heart of the fight.
Labour this time around have come up with a strong list of candidates for the seats.
They were on display at Labour’s Māori campaign launch in Wainuiomata on Saturday.
Presided over by the irrepressible Ikaroa Rawhiti MP, Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, six of the seven candidates appeared before leader Chris Hipkins and Māori campaign chair Willie Jackson and a mostly Māori Labour Party audience.
Jackson was blunt about Labour’s strategy.
“We have to get real about where our people are at,” he said.
“The Treaty is incredibly important, but too many Māori can’t get accommodation.
“Too many Māori are homeless.
“Too many are struggling in the health area.
“Too many aren’t getting jobs.
“And I am so proud to represent a party that makes jobs, health and homes a priority.
“And that’s the strategy, people, it’s a simple strategy.”
There is plainly some sensitivity about not emphasising the Treaty.
“We already supported the treaty,” said Jackson.
“We supported that Kaupapa and we will continue to support it.
“But when you have our people on the streets, when you have our people struggling to get into accommodation, when our people have to line up with 150 others for a job, those are the priorities.
“And we have to tell our people that, get real.
“We’re not apologising for an economic strategy.”
The main speaker for the Labour Party visitors at the Powhiri at the Wainuiomata Marae was Labour’s candidate for Te Tai Tonga, Mananui Ramsden.
He had already had a big role in Labour’s Congress back in June.
The Nagi Tahu environmentalist and builder is considered to be highly likely to defeat the breakaway Te Pāti Māori MP Takuta Ferris, who has recently confirmed that he will stand as an independent.
Ramsden told the Marae on Saturday that he had been called to politics by his elders.
But he is offering an inclusive message to New Zealand.
“We are committed to our own mana motuhake, our own rakatiratanga (ownership),” he said.
“But me personally, I believe that the way that we do that is we come together, all people in Aotearoa, and find a way forward.”
Labour is expecting to hold Tangaere-Manuel’s Ikaroa Rawhiti seat and also believes that the current list MP Willow-Jean Prime will come through the middle of a crowded field in Te Tai Tokerau to win that seat back.
However, even Labour’s officials are not confident they can defeat Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi in Waiariki, where he has a majority of 15,891.
That leaves three seats up for grabs and Labour has found talented candidates for all of them.
Kerrin Leoni was the first wāhine Māori elected to the Auckland Council (serving from 2022 to 2025) and is a former Auckland mayoral candidate.
She is standing for Tamaki Makaurau, which Te Pāti Māori took from Labour in the by-election in that seat a year ago, and Leoni was right on message on Saturday.
“We know we have 250,000 Māori living in Tamaki Makaurau who are suffering right now,” she said.
“When I’m walking around South Auckland and the vulnerable parts of our city, we’ve seen our homelessness numbers double.
“We’ve seen our whānau struggling. We’re seeing our NGOs struggling.”
Labour is optimistic that Te Pūoho Kātene can defeat Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa Packer in Te Tai Hauauru.
He is a graduate of Stanford Business School and a Fulbright Scholar with a number of leadership roles in Māori entities.
“Our people in our seats voted on hope,” he said.
“They vote on hope that when things get hard, that we’re there for them, like they are for their whānau.
“Hope that the Government represents a comforting hand helping up and not an austere fist punching down.
“There’s hope that working hard can get you ahead in a fair Aotearoa.”
Kingi Kiriona is standing against sitting Te Pāti Māori MP, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi Clarke, who performed the haka in the Chamber against ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill.
He is the Deputy Chair of Te Māngai Pāho, following three terms as Board Director of Whakaata Māori. He’s also a sitting member of the Waitangi Tribunal.
Privately, Labour believes this will be a close race.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins unveiled a policy on Māori trade training at the Marae, feeding right into Jackson’s economic strategy.
He wasn’t keen on discussing any possible future relationships with Te Pāti Māori.
“We haven’t had a lot to do with Te Pāti Māori in the last couple of years,” he said.
“They’ve had a few issues of their own that they’ve been dealing with.
“We have had constructive conversations with them in the past. But we’re all out to win all seven Māori seats.”
He said that the party was a long way away from participating in conversations around what a future government might look like because of their own internal issues.
“They still have some internal issues that they clearly need to work through,” he said, probably in reference to two Te Pāti Māori MPs who have broken away from the party and are now standing as independents.
Ultimately Labour’s candidates will be standing on a Labour platform; jobs, health, housing and the party is betting that will be a more potent vote-getter than debates about the Treaty and sovereignty.
If the strategy succeeds, it might also change the emphasis within Māori politics away from the more philosophical issues.
